look at the last three BCS National Championship matchups, along with their pre-game numbers head-to-head.
So to start with... let's look at the 2007 matchup between the LSU Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes - where LSU prevailed 38-24.
As you can see, this was a fairly even matchup, with LSU having the offensive advantage (7 points better) and Ohio State had the defensive advantage (7 points better).
Even more ironic? Ohio State actually outgained the Tigers on offense (353-326), and took a 10-0 lead in the beginning of the game - thanks to a long run by Beanie Wells. From there, the Tigers tied the game at 10, as the teams went back and forth.
However, the game hinged on turnovers (The Tigers were 2nd in TO Margin to the Buckeyes' 76th ranking)... with the Buckeyes throwing an INT in the 2nd that allowed the Tigers to extend a small lead to 14 by halftime... scoring 24 unanswered points along the way.
In the 4th quarter, while trying to mount a comeback, the Buckeyes turned the ball over TWICE (fumble and INT) and were never able to come back.
In the 2008 NC Game, it was the Florida Gators vs. the Oklahoma Sooners... this time won by the Gators 24-14.
Oklahoma came into this game with the #1 BCS ranking, a DOMINATING offense (averaging 54 points per game), but a pretty suspect defense (ranked 63rd in total defense).
In this game filled with offensive powerhouses (#1 and #3 respectively) it was the DEFENSE that proved to be the difference. Both QB's threw 2 interceptions and the TO battle was even... but Florida stopped the Sooners TWICE inside the 5 yard line... and held Oklahoma to 40 points less than their average.
In the 2009 NC game, it was the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Texas Longhorns... with the Tide prevailing easily 37-21.
This one was pretty evenly matched on both sides of the ball... but all that went down the drain when Colt McCoy got injured in the 1st half. This is especially a bad turn when Texas relied heavily on McCoy for their offense (55th in rushing, and 15th in passing) and the senior leader rarely turned the ball over.
His backup (true freshman Garrett Gilbert) played admirably under the circumstances, and even got the Longhorns within three points in the 4th quarter... but too many turnovers shot Texas in the foot and Alabama pulled away late.
And that leads us to this season's match-up between the Oregon Ducks and Auburn Tigers:
Oregon doesn't lead by much in 14 of these 17 categories (especially offensively), but they do lead - and the most glaring difference comes on the defensive side of the ball. And before people say, "Auburn played in the SEC and therefore can't have a dominant defense,"one should point out that the last THREE SEC Champions had VERY SUCCESSFUL defenses when compared against ALL 120 TEAMS. In 2007, LSU was 3rd in Total Defense (17th in scoring D)... in 2008, Florida was 9th in Total D (5th in scoring D)... and last season, Alabama was 2nd in Total D (1st in scoring D) - meanwhile Auburn comes in 54th in BOTH Total D and scoring D. On the other hand, Oregon's defense ranks 25th and 14th respectively.
However, BOTH Oregon and Auburn's defensive numbers are skewed a bit due to the amount of plays they defend in a game. Oregon averages 79 offensive plays per game, while Auburn gets 66 per contest... these "extra" offensive plays
Also, the last three National Champions were 2nd (LSU), 2nd (Florida), and 5th (Alabama) in turnover margin - while Auburn comes in 33rd and the Ducks are 7th.
Another HUGE statistic that isn't even mentioned in this list in Red Zone Defense... where Oregon ranks 5th in the nation... and where Auburn ranks 95th. Meanwhile, the 2008-09 National Championship teams ranked 2nd (Alabama), 3rd (Florida)... while the NCAA site doesn't have results for 2007.
So while no one is counting Auburn out in the National Championship game... I do think it's worth mentioning that they're clearly bucking the trend by coming in with a defense ranked so low in so many categories - and a turnover margin worse than their opponent.
And if you don't think these are indicators of a potential problem... just look at these numbers prior to last year's Rose Bowl match-up:
The Buckeyes had us pretty much dominated in most defensive stats, especially in scoring defense... and Ohio State was 4th in the nation in turnover margin, compared to 46th in the nation for Oregon. Both of these facts proved to be HUGE in this game. Turnovers cost Oregon dearly... as not only did the Ducks give away an additional field goal at the end of the half with an interception... but they also fumbled a ball away in the in red zone while only down 2 points late in the 3rd quarter.
And for all of these games... the turnover margin has been eerie in it's prediction of the turnover battle in the match-ups... except of course for Texas where their true freshman threw 4 ints in the game and Alabama forced 5 TO's and gave up 2.
But the 2007 game featured:
LSU +1.43 against Ohio State -.23 to give the Tigers a +1.66 advantage in TO margin... and the Tigers were +2 in turnovers for the game.
In 2008:
Florida was +1.69 and Oklahoma was +1.77 to give the Sooners a +.08 advantage... and the teams were EVEN in the game.
And in the 2010 Rose Bowl:
Ohio State was +1.33 and Oregon was +.25 to give Ohio State a +1.08 advantage and Ohio State was +1 in turnovers for the game.
In the 2010 NC Game:
Oregon is +1.08 and Auburn is +.38 which gives Oregon a +.70 advantage in the game. Will that give Oregon an advantage? Who knows... but it ain't bad to have ANY statistical advantage going into the game - and Oregon has plenty of that on their side going into this game.
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